Last year, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center published a report on the state of the US climate.
Its conclusion: the world is still warming.
The report was a bit of a surprise.
But the scientists behind it are confident it’s still true.
In a paper published in Nature Geoscience, they claim the current state of global warming is actually “very good” for us.
But there are caveats.
They make the case that the world has been warming faster than previous models predicted, and they note that climate models predict that it will only continue to get warmer.
The scientists, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, analysed data from the climate model for the past 50 years and compared it with historical data.
They calculated the change in average global temperatures from 1850 to 2100 from the models’ data.
They found that the models predicted global temperatures would increase by 1.7C (4.3F) by 2100, while the observed data shows a warming rate of 0.7 (0.3C) per decade.
The models’ forecasts are, on average, about 4C (8F) above current trends, but they are not as accurate as the data, the scientists say.
They say the models have overestimated the rate of warming.
“The modelers overestimated warming by an average of 1.6°C per decade over the past century.
That’s about a quarter of a degree Celsius per decade,” the scientists write.
And they note there is a wide range in how well the models predict the future.
In their paper, they point to a number of climate models that predict the rate at which warming will accelerate, rather than slowing down.
They also note that some models, like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are more accurate than others.
“If the IPCC is wrong, and if the models are incorrect, we would expect the modelers to be right,” said lead author Mark Serreze, from Harvard University’s Earth System Science Center.
While the researchers argue that the data is unreliable, the results are convincing.
The warming rate is 0.8C per century. It is 0